According to RisMedia’s 2007 Power Broker Report (pdf), there were about 356,000 less real estate transactions in 2006 than in 2005.
Here are some interesting charts. The first shows the top 10 states with the most agents (New Jersey, California, Minnesota, Virginia, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, New York, Georgia)

The second shows the top 10 states according to transaction sides (New Jersey, Minnesota, Texas, Virginia, California, Pennsylvania, Florida, Illinois, New York, Georgia)

From the looks of things, PA and NJ are looking a bit overcrowded 413,199/64,354 = 6.4 transactions per agent. Pennsylvania is a bit higher at 131,748/13,918=9.46. With the average home price in NJ, NY and PA being $264,715 (also from the report), that means all things being equal, you won’t make much money in real estate just by being average - and a large number of agents aren’t going to make it.
Let’s say you get 1/4 of the 6% commission (that assumes 3% commission to the buyers agent and 3% to the seller’s agent. Then, let’s assume you split the commission 50/50 with your broker.) If your average transaction is $264,715, that means you net $3970. If you do the average, that means $3970*9 in PA = $35,736. You still have to pay all your business expenses, insurance, and have something left over to live off of. And, of course, nothing guarantees that you willl do 9 transactions - that’s simply the average if all transaction sides were split evenly amoung agents, which obviously they aren’t.
So that begs the question - what are you doing to set yourself apart from other agents?

The Long List ⋅ Echo ⋅ Subscribe
When you see a great real estate weblog post, share it with the world!
Joe Zlomek | Jun 25, 2007 | Reply
I applaud Krista’s conclusion: agents must set themselves apart from the crowd to be successful.
But I question RISMedia’s statistics as presented, specifically regarding Pennsylvania. According to the Licensed Agents map accompanying this article, Pennsylvania is reported to have only 13,918 sales licensees. No date is offered for that statistic. However, as of Oct. 3, 2006, the Pennsylvania State Real Estate Commission database of licensees included 39,272 individuals who held an active real estate sales license (excluding brokers, associate brokers, and other licensees).
That both skews the figures and adds greater urgency to Krista’s contention.